Space Junk Is Falling in Airplane Flight Paths, but Chances of Impact Is Low

Regulations to monitor and control the descent of debris linked to both new launches and old satellites could save lives.

By Paul Smaglik
Feb 7, 2025 10:00 PMFeb 7, 2025 9:58 PM
Space debris
(Credit: Dabarti CGI/Shutterstock)

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Air traffic controllers now have something new to worry about: space junk. A report warns the risk of parts left over from a launch rocket or other debris plummeting into global flight paths is now 26 percent a year, according to a report in the journal Nature.

While the chance of debris hitting an aircraft is low, its presence in flight paths could still pose a big enough risk that routes will need to be altered — inconveniencing passengers. Such disruptions are not unheard of. In 2022, a 20-ton chunk of rocket re-entering Earth’s atmosphere prompted Spanish and French aviation authorities to close parts of their airspace.

With launches increasing every year, so too, do the risks of junk plummeting to Earth. While the risk of hitting someone on the ground remains at a relatively low 3 percent, more frequent launches confer more risks.

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